Francetic, Giulia (A.A. 2022/2023) Forecasting inflation in the euro area: a Phillips curve perspective. Tesi di Laurea in Statistica applicata ed econometria, Luiss Guido Carli, relatore Antonio Pacifico, pp. 60. [Bachelor's Degree Thesis]

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Abstract/Index

The history of the Phillips curve. The original model. The accelerationist Phillips curve. New specifications. An analytical overview of the surge of inflation. A focus on monetary policy. The case of the car sector. Supply chain bottlenecks. The interplay between globalisation and the pandemic. A new index of supply chain disruptions and a new Phillips curve. Input sourcing and production location decisions. The spike in commodity prices. A summary of the energy shock. Gas price shocks. Food inflation. Gauging the pass-through of energy prices to the price level. The risk of second-round effects: the role of unit labor costs and profit margins. The wage share. Lessons from past oil shocks and recent developments. A note on the distributional effects of the surge in inflation. The econometric model. Descriptive statistics. The evolution of the variables. Inspection of the time series of core inflation and unemployment rate. An autoregressive univariate model for underlying inflation. Reduced-form Phillips curve through OLS. A Phillips curve that accounts for external shocks.

References

Bibliografia: pp. 56-59.

Thesis Type:	Bachelor's Degree Thesis
Institution:	Luiss Guido Carli
Degree Program:	Bachelor's Degree Programs > Bachelor's Degree Program in Economics and Management (L-18)
Chair:	Statistica applicata ed econometria
Thesis Supervisor:	Pacifico, Antonio
Academic Year:	2022/2023
Session:	Extraordinary
Deposited by:	Alessandro Perfetti
Date Deposited:	10 Sep 2024 09:11
Last Modified:	10 Sep 2024 09:11
URI:	https://tesi.luiss.it/id/eprint/39551

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