From warning to influence: intelligence in crisis anticipation and decision-making
Vamerali, Nicola (A.A. 2024/2025) From warning to influence: intelligence in crisis anticipation and decision-making. Tesi di Laurea in Crisis communication, Luiss Guido Carli, relatore Emiliana De Blasio, pp. 97. [Master's Degree Thesis]
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Abstract/Index
Anticipating crises: definitions, models, and theoretical foundations. Defining “crisis”: nature, typologies and dynamics. Defining “intelligence”: functions, cycle and key actors. Predictive intelligence: models and warning tools. Conditions for effective warning. Intelligence as an unheard voice: obstacles and distortions in policy-making. The policy-intelligence gap: a communication issue or a matter of power. Cognitive and organizational factors hindering intelligence impact. The risk of politicization of intelligence. The ethics of warning: acting too early, too late, or not at all. Comparative case studies: intelligence between voice and silence. Case 1–9/11 attacks: the tragedy of non-integration as a turning point. Case 2–2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine: a (partially) effective public warning. Case 3–Israel–Hamas war (2023): tactical and strategic surprise. Case 4–us withdrawal from Afghanistan (2021): inconsistent forecasts and operational deafness. Comparative analysis: results and conditions for effective intelligence. Intelligence as a strategic actor: prospects and limits. Justifying a more central role for intelligence. Present and future for intelligence in emerging crises. Towards a culture of anticipation: final recommendations and guidelines.
References
Bibliografia: pp. 83-97.
| Thesis Type: | Master's Degree Thesis |
|---|---|
| Institution: | Luiss Guido Carli |
| Degree Program: | Master's Degree Programs > Master's Degree Program in International Relations (LM-52) |
| Chair: | Crisis communication |
| Thesis Supervisor: | De Blasio, Emiliana |
| Thesis Co-Supervisor: | Simoni, Marco |
| Academic Year: | 2024/2025 |
| Session: | Autumn |
| Deposited by: | Alessandro Perfetti |
| Date Deposited: | 03 Mar 2026 11:40 |
| Last Modified: | 03 Mar 2026 11:40 |
| URI: | https://tesi.luiss.it/id/eprint/45052 |
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