Ferretti, Giorgio James (A.A. 2025/2026) Prediction markets as probability forecasts: theory and practice. Tesi di Laurea in Mathematical finance, Luiss Guido Carli, relatore Sara Biagini, pp. 56. [Bachelor's Degree Thesis]

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Abstract/Index

Price formation. Notation and setup. Proper scoring rules as incentive foundations. From one-shot scoring to market scoring rules. Mapping maker state to prices. Numerical illustration: LMSR pricing and liquidity. Cost-function formulation and share prices. Price interpretation. Set-up and interpretation objective. Baseline microfoundation: log utility and market clearing. First generalization: correlation between beliefs and wealth. Second generalization: beyond log utility. Methodology. Testable implications derived from part I. Statistical measures and model specifications. Empirical workflow. Data. Data source and retrieval scope. Sample construction. Coverage by horizon. Empirical analysis. Baseline forecast performance and calibration (H1–H2). Conditional calibration and convergence (H3–H5). Robustness.

References

Bibliografia: p. 56.

Thesis Type:	Bachelor's Degree Thesis
Institution:	Luiss Guido Carli
Degree Program:	Bachelor's Degree Programs > Bachelor's Degree Program in Economics and Business, English language (L-33)
Chair:	Mathematical finance
Thesis Supervisor:	Biagini, Sara
Academic Year:	2025/2026
Session:	Summer
Deposited by:	Alessandro Perfetti
Date Deposited:	15 Oct 2026 09:52
Last Modified:	15 Oct 2026 09:52
URI:	https://tesi.luiss.it/id/eprint/46861

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